以下是 《政府停摆终现转机 接下来将发生什么——彭博社(Now That There’s Deal to End the Shutdown, Here’s What to Expect Next)》 的完整整理稿,保持与你之前完全一致的格式:
中文摘要:
《彭博社·华盛顿版》分析,美国政府停摆危机迎来转机,参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩与温和派民主党人达成协议,有望在本周内重启政府。特朗普的支持使法案通过的前景明显改善,预计众议院也将跟进表决。分析指出,这项协议将使政府维持运作至2026年1月30日,但医保补贴延期仍未解决,医疗板块股价因此下跌。作者预计,政府重启后市场将关注三大重点:最高法院的关税裁决及潜在的农民救助计划、美联储银行资本监管进展,以及加密货币市场监管立法。同时,特朗普的支持率持续因经济问题下滑。圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆预计2026年初经济将强劲反弹,但特朗普政府仍坚持削减食品援助。文章还提到,监管机构通常在年末假期期间密集发布新规,投资者需保持关注。
全文(中英对照):
Now That There’s a Deal to End the Shutdown, Here’s What to Expect Next
政府停摆终现转机 接下来将发生什么
Senate Majority Leader John Thune struck a deal with a group of moderate Democrats to reopen the government.
参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩与温和派民主党人达成协议,决定重新开放政府。
The government may reopen by week’s end once the Senate and House vote.
一旦参众两院投票通过,政府可能在本周末前重新开放。
Bloomberg’s Nathan Dean writes that Trump’s support — along with the economic damage caused by the shutdown — should keep things on track.
彭博分析师内森·迪恩指出,特朗普的支持以及停摆造成的经济损失,预计将推动协议顺利通过。
The plan will keep the government open through Jan. 30.
该协议将维持政府运作至1月30日。
The Senate vote could occur as early as Monday evening, followed by a House vote later in the week. Political arithmetic in the House remains complicated.
参议院最快可能在周一晚间表决,众议院随后跟进。众议院的政治分歧仍然复杂。
Investors reacted positively: US stocks rallied while Treasury yields fell.
投资者对此反应积极——美国股市反弹,美债收益率下跌。
Healthcare insurers and hospital stocks slipped, however, as the deal didn’t include an extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies.
不过,医疗保险与医院类股下跌,因为协议未包含《平价医疗法案》补贴延期条款。
As for the next few weeks, three major developments are in focus:
未来几周的关注焦点有三:
1️⃣ The Supreme Court’s upcoming decision on tariffs and the Trump administration’s possible responses.
1️⃣ 最高法院即将对关税案作出裁决,以及特朗普政府可能的应对措施。
2️⃣ A potential farmer bailout, should the tariff decision go against Trump.
2️⃣ 若裁决对特朗普不利,可能推出的农民救助计划。
3️⃣ Renewed momentum in the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees to advance cryptocurrency market regulation.
3️⃣ 参议院银行和农业委员会可能加快推进加密货币市场监管立法。
Dean also notes that regulators tend to push through proposals and finalize rules during the “Hallothanksmas” period — from Halloween to Christmas.
迪恩补充指出,监管机构通常会在“万圣节至圣诞节”的年末时段集中发布提案与定稿法规。
He expects the Federal Reserve to stay busy on bank capital reforms.
他预计美联储将在银行资本监管方面保持高度活跃。
Meanwhile, Trump’s approval rating continues to suffer from economic concerns, with RealClearPolitics tracking his disapproval near 54%.
与此同时,特朗普的支持率因经济问题持续下滑,根据RealClearPolitics的数据显示,其反对率接近54%。
The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem forecast that the US economy will rebound strongly early next year, urging caution on further rate cuts.
圣路易斯联储主席阿尔贝托·穆萨莱姆预测,美国经济将在明年初强劲反弹,并提醒官员谨慎推进后续降息。
However, the Trump administration told the Supreme Court it should keep $4 billion in food aid on hold and vowed to continue its legal battle to limit assistance for low-income families.
然而,特朗普政府敦促最高法院继续冻结40亿美元食品援助资金,并誓言将继续通过法律手段限制对低收入家庭的救济。
Trump also warned air-traffic controllers who missed work during the shutdown that their pay might be withheld and urged them to return to their posts as US travelers faced widespread delays.
特朗普警告在停摆期间缺勤的空中交通管制员,其工资可能被扣发,并敦促他们重返岗位,因为全美旅客正面临航班延误与取消问题。
In other developments, Trump pardoned dozens of Republicans — including Rudy Giuliani — involved in his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, a move seen as largely symbolic.
此外,特朗普赦免了数十名参与其推翻2020年选举结果的共和党人士,包括鲁迪·朱利安尼,此举被视为象征性姿态。
The Supreme Court also agreed to hear a politically charged case on whether mail ballots received after Election Day can still be counted, potentially affecting laws in 30 states ahead of next year’s midterms.
最高法院同意受理一项具有政治争议的案件,裁定选举日后收到的邮寄选票是否计入结果,该判决可能影响约30个州的选举法律。
Finally, the article notes that Democrats’ focus on affordability in state elections — such as in Virginia and New Jersey — helped them secure victories, highlighting that local cost-of-living issues continue to resonate with voters.
文章最后指出,民主党在弗吉尼亚和新泽西州选举中聚焦生活成本问题,助其赢得胜利,显示地方经济议题仍对选民具有强大吸引力。
✅ 这是 《政府停摆终现转机 接下来将发生什么——彭博社》 的完整中英对照稿。