中文摘要：
《华尔街日报》报道，当前美国经济信心的分化主要源于财富效应：持有股票的人普遍感到乐观，而未持股的美国人对经济前景依然悲观。随着股市屡创新高，尤其是人工智能板块带动的上涨，投资者账面财富激增，推动了餐饮、旅行、家居装修等消费支出。摩根大通估算，仅30只顶级AI股票就贡献了过去一年美国消费者支出增长的16%。然而，这种财富效应加剧了经济两极化，富人持续消费、低收入群体却在紧缩开支。数据显示，收入前20%的美国人掌握87%的股票与基金财富。专家警告，如果AI或股市下跌，消费信心可能骤降，经济面临风险。总体而言，美国经济正在形成一种“双速运行”的格局：富裕阶层受益于资产增值，而普通家庭则在高通胀与疲弱就业中感到不安。
全文（中英对照）:
Feeling Great About the Economy? You Must Own Stocks
觉得经济形势一片大好？那你肯定持有股票
Investors’ rosy feelings about their stock market gains are powering spending—but it’s a different story for everyone else.
投资者因股市收益带来的乐观情绪正在推动消费，但对其他人而言，情况却截然不同。
A few months ago, with the market surging, 67-year-old retiree Rick Wichmann saw his portfolio soar. He sold his Toyota, leased a Tesla, and spent $72,000 upgrading his home’s HVAC system.
几个月前，随着股市飙升，67岁的退休顾问里克·威克曼看到自己的投资组合大幅增值。他卖掉了丰田车，改租特斯拉，还花7.2万美元更换整栋房子的空调系统。
When stocks fell last week, he added options for protection but kept spending. “I’m fairly bullish about the economy,” he said.
上周股市下跌时，他增设了期权对冲风险，但并未减少消费。“我对经济相当乐观，”他说。
Many Americans with investments feel financially secure as major indexes hit record highs, despite economic uncertainty.
尽管经济存在不确定性，许多拥有投资的美国人随着股指创下新高而感到财务稳健。
According to JPMorgan Chase, 30 leading AI-related stocks alone have added $5 trillion to household wealth in the past year.
摩根大通报告称，仅30只与人工智能相关的顶级股票在过去一年就为美国家庭增加了5万亿美元的账面财富。
Investors’ paper gains are fueling spending on restaurants, flights, and home improvements—keeping the broader economy humming.
投资者账面财富增长正推动餐饮、出行和家居装修支出，从而维持经济的活力。
But for those without stocks, sentiment is dismal. The University of Michigan’s data shows non-stockholders’ confidence is at its lowest since 1998.
但对未持股者而言，信心指数处于1998年以来最低点。
This wealth gap makes the economy vulnerable to market downturns. If AI stocks drop, the ripple effect could hit national consumption.
这种财富分化使经济更易受到股市下行的冲击。如果AI股价下跌，其影响可能波及全国消费。
Economists call this the “wealth effect”—people spend more when their assets rise in value.
经济学家称之为“财富效应”——当资产升值，人们会增加支出。
Research suggests every 35–$50 in extra spending.
研究表明，股票财富每增加1000美元，消费将增加35至50美元。
JPMorgan estimates AI-related gains explain 16% of consumer spending growth in the past year.
摩根大通估算，仅AI股票带来的财富效应就占过去一年消费增长的16%。
“Stock market gains are providing an important boost,” said Karen Dynan of Harvard University.
“股市上涨为经济提供了重要支撑，”哈佛大学教授凯伦·迪南指出。
From 2020 to mid-2025, US households gained over $63 trillion in total wealth, with stock wealth rising 127%.
从2020年初至2025年中，美国家庭总财富增长超63万亿美元，其中股票财富上升了127%。
The top 20% of earners own 87% of all stocks and mutual funds, according to the Federal Reserve.
美联储数据显示，收入前20%的群体持有全部股票和共同基金的87%。
Oxford Economics projects inflation-adjusted spending to rise 2% in Q4, with three-quarters of that due to the wealth effect.
牛津经济研究院预计，经通胀调整后的消费支出在第四季度同比增长2%，其中约四分之三来自财富效应。
High-income households are splurging on luxury goods and travel, while lower-income groups cut back.
高收入群体继续豪掷消费，而低收入家庭则在削减开支。
Chipotle and Delta Air Lines reported weaker demand among middle-income customers, but strong luxury spending from the wealthy.
Chipotle与达美航空报告称，中等收入顾客减少消费，而富裕群体的高端消费仍然强劲。
The S&P 500 dropped over 12% after Trump’s tariff announcement, but rebounded within a month as AI stocks surged.
特朗普宣布关税后标普500下跌逾12%，但AI股飙升使市场在一个月内迅速反弹。
“Stock owners feel better because they have a financial cushion,” said Joanne Hsu of the University of Michigan.
“股票持有者因有财务缓冲而更有信心，”密歇根大学的徐娴指出。
Non-stockholders, however, remain pessimistic. “The market’s rise doesn’t matter to them,” she added.
但未持股者仍然悲观。“股市飙升对他们而言毫无意义，”她补充说。
Retirees like Bill and Sheelah Black adjust spending based on market performance, dining weekly at fine restaurants when stocks are up.
退休者比尔与希拉·布莱克会根据股市表现调整消费，股市上涨时每周在高级餐厅用餐。
Meanwhile, tech professionals such as Zack Hendlin and AI entrepreneurs spend more freely thanks to their surging portfolios.
与此同时，像扎克·亨德林这样的科技从业者与AI创业者因投资组合膨胀而更加敢于消费。
“Watching my stocks rise lets me stress less,” Hendlin said. “It’s a pressure valve from daily financial worries.”
“看着股票上涨让我少了很多焦虑，”亨德林说，“这就像一个减压阀，缓解了日常财务压力。”
Retiree Mark Feighner invested in Nvidia and Broadcom to bet on AI, funding donations and luxuries from his gains.
退休高管马克·费格纳投资英伟达和博通押注AI，用投资收益资助慈善并提升生活品质。
“I feel more optimistic today than ever,” he said.
“我现在比这辈子任何时候都更乐观，”他说道。