中文摘要:
美国民主党在近期选举中取得了显著胜利,标志着特朗普和共和党面临重大挑战。民主党候选人分别在新泽西州和弗吉尼亚州的州长选举中获胜,进一步巩固了其在这两个州的影响力。同时,纽约市选举中的民主社会主义者Zohran Mamdani当选市长,提出冻结租金和增加公共服务等激进政策,吸引了广泛支持。加利福尼亚州的选民通过公投允许民主党重新划定国会选区,增加了民主党的选举优势。这些结果表明,尽管特朗普不在选票上,但他的政策和形象仍然影响选民投票选择,民主党的整体表现强劲,尤其是在生活成本和住房问题上获得选民的广泛支持。
全文(中英对照):
A Night of Big Wins for the Democrats
民主党大胜之夜
Democrats were bound to have a good election night. The prevailing question on November 4th was more a matter of degree: would it be merely good, or would it be great?
民主党注定会迎来一个好选举之夜。11月4日,问题的关键不再是“好与坏”,而是“好”到什么程度:是否仅仅是好,还是极其出色?
The results of the night’s four big contests suggest an excellent one indeed for the opposition party.
晚上四场重要选举的结果表明,反对党确实迎来了极其出色的表现。
Voters in two blue-ish states sent centrist, pragmatic Democrats to their governor’s mansions: Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey and Abigail Spanberger in Virginia.
在两个偏蓝州,选民选出了温和、务实的民主党州长:米琪·谢里尔(Mikie Sherrill)在新泽西州,阿比盖尔·斯潘伯格(Abigail Spanberger)在弗吉尼亚州。
New Yorkers turned out at the highest rate in nearly six decades while electing Zohran Mamdani, a 34-year-old Democratic Socialist with ambitions to soak the rich, freeze rents and deliver free services as mayor.
纽约市的选民以近六十年来的最高投票率投票选出了34岁的民主社会主义者佐赫兰·曼丹尼(Zohran Mamdani),他提出冻结租金、对富人加税并提供免费服务的市长竞选计划。
Meanwhile a ballot initiative in California passed that will allow Democrats there to redraw congressional districts in their favour.
与此同时,加利福尼亚州的一个选举倡议通过,使民主党可以重新划定国会选区,进一步巩固其在该州的优势。
That will have implications for next year’s midterms.
这将对明年的中期选举产生影响。
Democrats were operating in a favourable national environment. Off-year elections usually mean a turnout advantage for the opposition party.
民主党所处的国家环境有利。非选举年的选举通常意味着反对党在选民投票率上的优势。
Such races draw the most engaged voters, many of whom want nothing more than to punish the president.
这种选举吸引了最为积极的选民,其中许多人只想惩罚现任总统。
And Donald Trump is acutely unpopular with Democrats and left-leaning independents.
特朗普在民主党及偏左独立选民中极为不受欢迎。
The share of Americans who disapprove of the president is 19 points higher than the share which approves.
不喜欢特朗普的美国人比例比喜欢他的比例高出19个百分点。
That marks a nadir for Mr Trump’s second term, and is lower than almost any point in his first.
这标志着特朗普第二任期的最低点,且低于他第一任期的几乎所有时刻。
Added to the Democrats’ advantage was a favourable electoral map.
民主党还受益于有利的选举地图。
Both New Jersey and Virginia reliably vote Democratic in presidential races, although both also regularly elect Republican governors.
新泽西和弗吉尼亚州在总统选举中通常支持民主党,尽管两州也经常选出共和党州长。
Looking ahead to the midterms, the test was how Ms Spanberger’s and Ms Sherrill’s showing would compare with Kamala Harris’s win in those states last year—whether they would beat her spread.
展望中期选举,关键在于斯潘伯格和谢里尔的表现如何与哈里斯去年在这些州的胜利相比——是否能超越她的选举得票率。
They did, decisively.
她们做到了,且是压倒性胜利。
Ms Spanberger was on track to outperform Ms Harris’s margin in Virginia by about more than six points flipping the governor’s office.
斯潘伯格在弗吉尼亚州的选举中超越哈里斯的得票差距约6个百分点,成功将州长职位从共和党手中夺回。
Democratic enthusiasm ensured that even a scandal-ridden candidate for attorney-general, Jay Jones, claimed a more narrow victory.
民主党的热情确保了即便是一位因丑闻缠身的州检察长候选人杰伊·琼斯,也能取得相对较小的胜利。
Ms Sherrill faced a tougher race in New Jersey. In 2024 the state saw the second-largest swing towards Mr Trump.
谢里尔在新泽西州面临了更艰难的竞选。在2024年,该州是特朗普支持度第二大提升的地方。
Analysts wondered whether voters who had abandoned the Democrats last year, many of them non-white and working class, would stick with the Republicans or simply stay home without Mr Trump on the ballot.
分析师们在思考,去年弃投民主党的选民,许多为非白人和工薪阶层,他们是继续支持共和党,还是在特朗普不出现在选票上时选择弃权。
That Ms Sherrill was running to succeed an unpopular Democratic incumbent did her no help; no candidate from a party seeking a third consecutive term had won since 1961.
谢里尔竞选接替一位不受欢迎的民主党现任州长,这对她毫无帮助;自1961年以来,任何寻求第三个连任的党派候选人都未能获胜。
Ms Sherrill not only managed to beat Jack Ciattarelli, her maga-friendly challenger, whom Mr Trump endorsed, she was also on track to outperform Ms Harris by more than five points.
谢里尔不仅击败了特朗普支持的亲特朗普挑战者杰克·恰塔雷利,而且她的得票率也将超过哈里斯超过五个百分点。
Her victory marked a return to the double-digit margins enjoyed by Democratic presidential candidates in New Jersey between 2008 and 2020.
她的胜利标志着民主党在2008年至2020年间在新泽西州总统选举中的双位数领先优势的回归。
Ms Spanberger and Ms Sherrill are ex-congresswomen with backgrounds in national security: the former was a CIA officer, the latter a navy helicopter pilot.
斯潘伯格和谢里尔曾是国会女议员,且都拥有国家安全背景:前者是中央情报局官员,后者是海军直升机飞行员。
Both steered clear of culture-war quagmires and said sensible things about their support for law enforcement.
两人避开了文化战争的泥潭,并在支持执法方面发表了理智的言论。
Their pitch was risk-averse competence.
她们的竞选主张是规避风险的能力。
By contrast Mr Mamdani offered a light CV alongside heavy criticism of Israel and a history of impolitic comments about the police.
与此形成对比的是,曼丹尼提供的是简历较轻,同时对以色列的批评言辞激烈,并且有不当的警察言论历史。
The result may well be a less ambitious tenure than many of his voters hope.
结果可能是他的任期将远没有许多选民期望的那样雄心勃勃。
Democrats’ rebound will reassure the party, offering a signal that last year’s impressive Republican gains among young and minority working-class voters may not endure.
民主党的反弹将为党内提供信心,表明去年共和党在年轻和少数族裔工薪阶层选民中的大幅增长可能不会持久。
Yet it would also be rash to read too much into a handful of races in which Democrats enjoy structural advantages.
然而,如果过度解读这几场民主党在结构性优势下的胜利也是不明智的。
The passage of that measure means that Democrats enter 2026 with as much momentum as they could have hoped this off-year election to deliver.
这一措施的通过意味着民主党将在2026年进入中期选举时,拥有与本次选举所带来的动能相当的优势。