中文摘要：
摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase & Co.）策略师预计，散户投资者的强劲买盘将支撑股市上涨至年底。报告指出，根据过去十年股票基金流入的季节性模式，非美国大选年份的12月及次年第一季度通常会出现资金流入高峰。标普500指数已连续六个月上涨，为2021年以来最长的连涨周期，今年创下36次历史新高，人工智能相关热潮推动大型科技股上涨。摩根大通团队表示，散户资金流入动能预计将延续至2026年初。尽管近期因科技股估值过高引发的获利回吐导致市场短暂波动，但分析人士认为股市回调空间有限。高盛的理查德·普里沃罗茨基（Richard Privorotsky）称：“股市最终仍将被视为逢低买入的机会。”
全文（中英对照）:
Retail Investors Set to Buoy Stocks Into Year-End, JPMorgan Says
摩根大通称散户投资者将提振股市至年底
Strong flows from retail investors are likely to support stocks into year-end, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists.
摩根大通策略师表示，来自散户投资者的强劲资金流入可能会支撑股市上涨至年底。
The forecast is based on seasonal patterns observed in a study of equity fund flows over the past decade, the team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said in a note.
由尼古拉奥斯·帕尼吉尔佐格鲁（Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou）领导的团队在报告中指出，这一预测基于对过去十年股票基金流动的季节性模式研究。
Outside of US election years, average flows tend to be higher in December and in the first quarter that follows, they found.
他们发现，非美国大选年份的12月及随后的第一季度，资金流入平均水平通常更高。
The S&P 500 index has just notched its sixth month of gains, the longest such winning streak since August 2021, rising almost 6% in September and October.
标普500指数刚刚实现连续第六个月上涨，为自2021年8月以来最长的连涨期，9月和10月累计上涨近6%。
The benchmark has set 36 record highs this year as enthusiasm over the growth of artificial intelligence powers an advance in tech megacaps.
今年以来，该基准指数已创下36次历史新高，人工智能增长热潮推动了大型科技股的上升。
“From a seasonality point of view, the strong momentum in the retail impulse into equities seen over the previous two months is likely to be sustained into early 2026,” Panigirtzoglou and his colleagues wrote.
帕尼吉尔佐格鲁及其团队写道：“从季节性角度看，过去两个月散户资金流入股票的强劲动能可能会延续至2026年初。”
Stronger retail demand for stocks in September and October showed up in the amount of money heading into vehicles such as exchange-traded funds.
9月和10月散户对股票的强劲需求反映在资金流入交易型基金（ETF）等投资工具的规模上。
“In particular, equity ETFs saw $160 billion of inflows in each of the previous two months, the strongest pace of equity ETF buying since November/December 2024 after the US election,” the strategists said.
策略师表示：“尤其是股票型ETF在过去两个月各吸引了1600亿美元流入，这是自2024年美国大选后的11月/12月以来最强劲的买入力度。”
The global stock rally has faltered over the past few days, as concerns over excessive valuations in the technology sector prompted some profit taking.
由于科技板块估值过高引发的部分获利回吐，全球股市在过去几天略有回调。
Retail investors’ favorite trades including AI-related stocks and cryptocurrencies took a hit.
散户最偏好的交易标的，包括人工智能相关股票和加密货币，均遭受打击。
A US government shutdown and conflicting headlines from Federal Reserve officials about the path of interest-rate cuts also dragged on sentiment.
美国政府停摆，以及美联储官员关于降息路径的相互矛盾表态，也打压了市场情绪。
Over at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., partner Richard Privorotsky said “retail is being tested for the first time in a while.”
高盛合伙人理查德·普里沃罗茨基表示：“散户投资者正经历一段时间以来的首次考验。”
A drop in crypto assets and pressure on shares in unprofitable tech companies make sense as capital rotates within the equity market, he said.
他说，加密资产下跌以及亏损科技公司股价承压是合理现象，因为资金正在股市内部轮动。
He does not expect any pullback in stocks to last long.
他预计股市的任何回调都不会持续太久。
“Ultimately equities are going to be a buy on the dip,” Privorotsky said, adding that fiscal expansion, corporate profits and money supply make real assets the only place to hold wealth.
普里沃罗茨基表示：“从根本上看，股票将继续被视为逢低买入的机会。”他补充称，财政扩张、企业利润和货币供给使得“实物资产仍是唯一的财富避风港”。