中文摘要:
ADP数据显示,美国私营部门10月份新增4.2万个就业岗位,扭转了前两个月连续下降的趋势,表明劳动力市场出现企稳迹象。大型企业推动了就业增长,而小型企业则连续第五个月裁员。ADP首席经济学家理查森表示,招聘步伐较为温和,薪资增长已停滞一年多,显示劳动力供需趋于平衡。虽然亚马逊、星巴克、塔吉特等大型公司近期裁员引发担忧,但整体失业申请仍处低位。分析师认为,这种温和的就业增长可能促使美联储在12月再次降息。行业数据显示,就业增长主要来自贸易、运输、教育及医疗服务业,而商业服务和信息产业则出现收缩。
全文(中英对照):
US Companies Added 42,000 Jobs in October, ADP Data Show
ADP 数据显示美国企业 10 月新增 4.2 万个就业岗位
Employment at US companies increased in October, signaling some stabilization in the job market after two straight months of declines.
美国企业10月份就业人数增加,在连续两个月下滑后显示出劳动市场趋于稳定。
Private-sector payrolls increased by 42,000 after a revised 29,000 decline a month earlier, according to ADP Research data.
根据ADP研究机构的数据,私营部门就业人数增加4.2万人,而前一个月修正后的数据为减少2.9万人。
The modest payrolls increase is consistent with a general softening in labor demand, with large companies accounting for most of the gains, while employment at small businesses declined.
这次温和的就业增长与整体劳动力需求趋缓的态势一致,其中大型企业贡献了大部分新增岗位,而小企业就业人数下降。
The ADP report is one of the few monthly snapshots of the labor market as the longest government shutdown in US history delays official data.
ADP报告是目前少数能够反映劳动市场状况的月度报告之一,因为美国历史上最长的政府停摆导致官方经济数据发布延迟。
While helping to temper concerns of a faster deterioration in the job market, the modest payrolls increase last month still reflects a slowdown in hiring.
虽然数据有助于缓解就业市场加速恶化的担忧,但上月温和的增幅仍显示招聘活动放缓。
“Hiring was modest relative to what we reported earlier this year,” said Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist. “Meanwhile, pay growth has been largely flat for more than a year, indicating that shifts in supply and demand are balanced.”
ADP首席经济学家内拉·理查森表示:“与今年早些时候相比,目前的招聘步伐较为温和。与此同时,薪资增长已连续一年多基本持平,这表明劳动力供需已趋于平衡。”
However, recent high-profile layoff announcements from large companies such as Amazon, Starbucks, and Target have contributed to anxiety about the job market.
然而,亚马逊、星巴克和塔吉特等大型公司近期宣布的大规模裁员加剧了人们对就业市场的担忧。
While jobless claims remain low, the current low-firing environment risks devolving into more dismissals that could drive up unemployment in the coming months.
尽管失业救济申请数量仍处于低位,但目前“少裁员”的环境可能在未来几个月恶化为更多解雇,从而推高失业率。
After the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates last week for a second straight meeting, Chair Jerome Powell said he sees “very gradual cooling” in the labor market but nothing more than that.
美联储上周连续第二次会议降息后,主席鲍威尔表示,劳动力市场正在“非常渐进地降温”,但程度有限。
He made it clear that another rate cut in December isn’t certain.
他明确指出,12月的再次降息并不确定。
Even so, several economists — including BMO Capital Markets and Pantheon Macroeconomics — said the weak hiring trend increases the likelihood of another rate cut.
尽管如此,多位经济学家(包括BMO资本市场和Pantheon宏观)认为,招聘疲软的趋势提高了再次降息的可能性。
“You can blame the trade war, AI disruptions, earlier tight monetary policy, or the government shutdown, but it’s pretty clear the labor market remains soft,” said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO. “This could be the key that unlocks another Fed rate cut in December.”
BMO高级经济学家萨尔·瓜蒂耶里表示:“无论是贸易战、人工智能冲击、早期紧缩货币政策还是政府停摆,都不能掩盖一个事实:劳动力市场依然疲软。这可能成为促使美联储12月再次降息的关键。”
Trade, transportation, and utilities, as well as education and health services, led the October job gains.
10月的就业增长主要来自贸易、运输与公用事业,以及教育和医疗服务行业。
Business services, information, and leisure and hospitality sectors shed jobs.
商业服务、信息产业以及休闲与酒店行业出现岗位减少。
Large companies accounted for most of the increase in payrolls, while small businesses saw declines for the fifth time in six months.
大型企业贡献了大部分就业增长,而小企业就业人数在过去六个月中第五次下降。
The ADP report, published with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, showed wage growth stagnated: job changers saw a 6.7% pay increase, while job stayers saw 4.5%.
ADP与斯坦福数字经济实验室联合发布的报告显示,工资增长停滞:跳槽员工薪资上涨6.7%,而留任员工仅上涨4.5%。
ADP bases its data on payrolls covering more than 26 million US private-sector employees.
ADP的研究基于覆盖超过2600万美国私营部门员工的薪资数据。
In addition to monthly reports, ADP said it will begin releasing payroll data on a weekly basis.
除月度报告外,ADP还表示将开始每周发布薪资数据。
The firm previously provided weekly payroll data to the Federal Reserve but recently ended the data-sharing arrangement without explaining why.
该公司此前曾向美联储提供每周薪资数据,但最近在未解释原因的情况下终止了该合作。