中文摘要：
美国财政部正加速将债务结构转向短期化，以适应高利率环境。尽管这种策略有助于降低当下的融资成本，但也增加了未来再融资的风险。分析人士认为，这一趋势才刚刚开始，财政部正在更多地依赖3个月和6个月的短期国库券，以减轻长期债务的利息支出压力。目前，美国未偿债务中约三分之一将在未来一年内到期，这意味着美国政府必须频繁滚动发行债务。投资者对短期国债的需求强劲，因收益率仍处于5%以上的高位。然而，市场专家警告称，如果未来利率下降或财政赤字继续扩大，短期化的债务结构可能让美国财政面临更高的再融资风险。
全文（中英对照）:
The Shift to Shorter-Dated US Debt Is Only Getting Started
美国债务向短期化转变才刚刚开始
The US Treasury’s pivot toward shorter-dated debt is gathering pace, reflecting the government’s efforts to reduce borrowing costs in a high-rate environment — but this shift may come with future risks.
美国财政部向短期债务转变的步伐正在加快，反映出政府在高利率环境下为降低融资成本所做的努力——但这一转变也可能带来未来的风险。
Treasury officials have increased issuance of bills — securities that mature in a year or less — as they balance the need to fund massive deficits with the political and economic pressures of rising interest expenses.
财政部官员增加了国库券（期限为一年或以下证券）的发行量，以在为庞大赤字融资的同时，平衡政治和经济层面的利息支出压力。
The move marks a significant reversal from the early 2020s, when the Treasury favored longer-dated bonds to lock in historically low rates during the pandemic.
这一举措与2020年代初期形成鲜明对比，当时财政部更倾向于发行长期债券，以在疫情期间锁定历史性低利率。
Now, with the Federal Reserve maintaining borrowing costs at two-decade highs, shorter maturities are more attractive to both the government and investors.
如今，在美联储维持二十年来最高借贷成本的情况下，短期债务对政府和投资者都更具吸引力。
As of October, bills account for about 23% of total marketable debt, up from roughly 17% two years ago — the fastest rise in more than a decade.
截至10月，短期国库券占美国可流通债务的约23%，高于两年前的约17%——这是十多年来增长最快的一次。
Analysts at Bank of America estimate that this share could climb above 25% by mid-2025, as the Treasury leans even more heavily on short-term borrowing to manage its record $34 trillion debt load.
美国银行分析师预计，到2025年中，短期债务占比可能会超过25%，因为财政部将更加依赖短期融资来管理创纪录的34万亿美元债务负担。
“Short-term debt is a useful relief valve for Treasury financing pressures, but it can also be a trap if rates remain high for too long,” said Mark Cabana, head of US rates strategy at BofA.
美国银行美国利率策略主管Mark Cabana表示：“短期债务是财政融资压力的有效缓解阀，但如果利率长时间维持高位，它也可能成为陷阱。”
Nearly one-third of US marketable debt now matures within a year — meaning the government must frequently refinance at prevailing interest rates.
目前，美国约三分之一的可流通债务将在一年内到期——这意味着政府必须频繁地以当前利率再融资。
The Treasury’s heavy reliance on short-term borrowing mirrors a broader shift in investor appetite, with demand for Treasury bills at multi-decade highs as yields above 5% lure cash away from money-market funds.
财政部对短期借款的高度依赖也反映出投资者偏好的变化，随着收益率超过5%，对国库券的需求达到数十年来的高点，资金从货币市场基金流入国债。
While the strategy has reduced near-term costs, it heightens sensitivity to future rate moves.
虽然该策略降低了短期成本，但也提高了对未来利率变动的敏感度。
If the Fed begins cutting rates next year, the Treasury could benefit from cheaper refinancing. But if inflation proves more persistent and rates stay elevated, the burden of rolling over short-term debt will grow.
如果美联储在明年开始降息，财政部将受益于更低的再融资成本。但如果通胀更持久、利率保持高位，短期债务的滚动成本将进一步上升。
For now, investors seem comfortable with the Treasury’s approach. Demand for bills remains robust, driven by institutional investors and foreign central banks seeking safe, high-yield assets.
目前，投资者似乎对财政部的策略感到放心。机构投资者和外国央行寻求安全且高收益资产，使得对短期国债的需求依然强劲。
But strategists caution that any unexpected spike in borrowing — from a widening deficit or an economic shock — could strain this balance.
但策略师警告称，任何借款需求的意外激增——无论是源于财政赤字扩大还是经济冲击——都可能打破这种平衡。
“The Treasury’s shift toward short-term debt isn’t inherently risky,” said Jay Barry, co-head of US rates strategy at JPMorgan Chase. “But in a world where deficits remain structurally large, it limits flexibility in the future.”
摩根大通美国利率策略联席主管Jay Barry表示：“财政部向短期债务转变本身并非高风险，但在结构性赤字持续存在的世界中，这会限制未来的政策灵活性。”